Polluters pays principle Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Polluters pays principle - Essay Example It is this relentless pursuit of growth around the world that is causing increasingly dangerous levels of environmental degradation and giving rise to the phenomenon of climate change with all its consequences. Environmental concerns of the earlier years that focused on adverse effects on human health have since long moved to the more universal concerns regarding the very survival of life on this planet. These concerns have led to concerted efforts at national and international levels to enact stringent laws to safeguard our environment. These laws embody the principle of ‘polluter pays’ and are intended not only to control and regulate emissions / discharges (including, due to unforeseen incidents) from any economic activity, but also to forewarn the businesses of the penal liabilities for failing to confirm to regulations. However there are arguments supporting and opposing the effectiveness of this principle. This article examines them in the light of specific incidents and proposes that the principle of ‘polluter pays’ is a sufficient and necessary deterrent for any The polluter pays principle came into vogue in 1973 and was incorporated into the European Communities Treaty in 1987 (Coffey and Newcombe, 2002, p.1-3). The European Communities Act, 1972 (UK) enabled the government of UK to implement European Community Law as a domestic law through regulations brought before the Parliament to make the necessary changes to the UK laws (UK Law online, 2009). The Environmental Damage (Prevention and Remediation) Regulations 2009 is one such instance concerning the UK environmental laws and it came into force on March 1, 2009 embodying the polluter pays principle. By using the terms remediation and liabilities, the concept of making good any damage to the environment / suffering penalties, is brought forth through these regulations. In other words, businesses that conduct specified activities in all the three

The Concept of Linear Regression Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Concept of Linear Regression - Essay Example However, a multiple regression models comprises of a single independent variable with multiple independent variables. For instance, stock returns are dependent on interest rates, risk, dividend payout ratio and various other variables. The most common example of simple linear regression is market index model. It assumes that the returns on the stock are only dependent on market returns (Elton & Gruber, 2007). Observations of the market often reveal that as the market goes up, the stock also follows the same direction. This implies that stock returns are correlated with market returns thus we can relate it to the stock market index. An example of multiple regression is cited in the literature by Lusztig & Schwab (1970), where multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the insurance expenses (dependent variable), through commission, profit and contingencies and premium taxes (independent Variables). Minimum least (sum of squares) method is used to estimate the model for regression equation. The values are chosen in such a way that the (vertical) distances from the data points to the fitted lines are minimized (so that the line fits the data as closely as possible). The figure below shows the best-fitted line for a simple linear regression model. For instance, there is a general perception that there are indications that "soda and sweetened drinks are the main sources of calories in American Diet," therefore most of the nutritionists recommend that soft drinks can be detrimental to health if they are consumed excessively.

Role of Media in Society

Role of Media in Society Media is considered to be the 4th pillar of the society while the other three being legislative, executive and judiciary. It plays an important role in the welfare of the society, working as an informer, an educator, a form of entertainment and an opinion influencer. In Malaysia, media and politics are co-dependent because through this, democracy is formed. Mustafa (1999) stated that in this broad context of democracy, the mass media plays an important role by supplying media users with a platform to obtain information, exchange views and at the same time give feedback to the government; however this is overshadowed by the states official view that the media should be functioning as an essential tool to promote national development, national harmony and national security. The Mainstream Media and Politics The Malaysian mainstream press can be categorised as having gone through a major period of change since the early 1980s in terms of ownership and well as flourished amendments and policies that serves as a form of gate-keeping and control over the media. All forms of media introduced, newspaper, radio and television, directly went under the control of the government or companies that were aligned with the government. In Malaysia, obtaining information is often a tedious affair and can be frustrating applied not just for journalists but for the public because there are no Freedom of Information (FOI) laws. One of the events that aided towards a tight control over the mainstream media was during the 1969 elections, Barisan National while retaining a majority, lost many seats to extremist Chinese and Malay parties Yesudhasan Wong (2010) stated that Malaysia experienced one of the worst incident of ethnic violence in its history that came to be known as the May 13 incident. As part of the governments plan to sustain social order then, the government suspended the publications for all newspapers for two days starting from 16 May 1969, subsequently introduced a censorship law and banned the circulation of certain foreign magazines and newspapers that contained reports of the violence in Kuala Lumpur (Mustafa, 1999) Due to the incident, the government declared to have the rights to censor items that were deemed dangerous to national security. The Malaysian government appears to be misusing arguments of religious sensitive and cultural issues to manipulate the political system by limiting political freedom of the opposition and civil society which makes Malaysia a less democratic state (Azizuddin, 2008) Then, a new established body, the National Operations Council (NOC) was formed to resuscitate parliamentary democracy, rebuild public confidence and engender ethic harmony and a form contributing towards forming ethic harmony; an amendment was form whereby it prohibited any act, speech or publication that has a tendency to bring feelings of ill-will and enmity between the various ethnic groups (Zaharom, 1999) Thus the strong hold over the mainstream media begins. Many government leaders in the developing world justify their control over the media in terms of jealousy guarding and guiding its members towards the supposedly noble path of national development and to ensure that the media does not fall into the wrong hands or in other words, state control over the mainstream media has clearly been justified in the name of national development and national security (Mustafa, 2004) During elections, the media plays an important role in publicizing as well as plays a part in advertising politicians as well as their campaign. The mainstream media is fully controlled by Barisan Nationals needs to not only publicise but as Mustafa (2005) stated, flaunt to the whole country BNs achievements, particularly in the area of socioeconomic development. A wide coverage would done on the pro-government and minimal reporting would be done on the opposition. Media ownership generally plays in role in why Barisan national is constantly being flaunt and portrayed as the political party to vote for. After Malaysia gained independence in 1957, the mainstream print media was owned by private sector companies. Then the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) made a successful bid for the Utusan Melayu a few years afterwards. Over the years, the major English newspaper, The New Straits Times was also taken over by UMNO of the ruling National Front, while The Star was bought over by the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and mainstream television channels like TV1, TV2 and TV3 were born, controlled by the government. According to an analysis on the coverage of Malaysias 2004 general elections by four mainstream newspapers (The Star, the New Straits Times (NST), Berita Harian and Utusan Melayu), the total number of news items that were positive towards BN among all four major newspapers were roughly 40% and above. The other part of the percentage went straight to new items that were negative towards the opposition. Only a slight number of news (4% and below) were negative new items towards BN. Mustafa (2005) also highlighted sample of headlines used by these newspapers that gave an idea of slant news reporting; Malaysians prefer Pak Lahs vision of Islam (NST, March 15 2004), Perlis merana jika pilih pembangang (Perlis suffers if opposition is voted) (Utusan Melayu, March 16 2004 ) This shows a high level of bias coverage within the highly influential mainstream newspapers during the 2004 general elections. Alternative Media and Politics With an obvious slant reporting and biasness from the mainstream media, cyber news is slowly taking over, becoming a more focused, better written, more informative and alternative to the mainstream newspapers and media. Like in the case of Marina Mahathir with The Column that wasnt; this piece was spiked by the Star because it touched in issues that were sensitive but since The Malaysian Multimedia and Communication Acts of 1998 promises that No censorship would be applied on Internet content, Marina published her column online together with ranting on why her column was spiked. What would stop the public now from reading that column online and have the same reaction if it was published in the mainstream newspaper? A study conducted by Zentrum Future Studies Malaysia in 2008 involving 1, 500 respondents between the age of 21 and 40 showed that the alternative media holds a big influence on young Malaysians. In the study, 64.5% of those ages from 21 to 30 years old trusted blogs and online media for reliable information. Those between 31 and 40 years old, 61.7% believed that information in blogs and online media are true. (Study Shows Why BN Lost the War, 2008) Yesudhasan Wong (2010) said that the young readership in Malaysia believes that the mainstream media are under the control of the government, always working continuously to ensure that the news are pro-government and has no or limited reports on sensitive issues. Various alternative news portals such as Malaysia Today, Malaysian Insider, Harakah Daily and MalaysiaKini provide media users with the alternative source to obtain political news or for those who have generally lost faith with the mainstream media. The parliamentary elections in 2008 brought the alternative media to a different level when weblogs, text messages and copies of Internet-streamed videos became the most influential information sources for voters ahead that resulted in a surprise blow to the Barisan National (BN) party, which has ruled the country for more than 50 years. After BNs worst election showing, in which it lost its two-thirds majority in the parliament, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi acknowledged March 25 that his coalition certainly lost the Internet war, and added that it was a serious misjudgement for his party to rely solely on government-controlled newspapers and television in its efforts to attract voters, (Kaufman, 2008). The alternative media gave media users a chance to hear what opposition parties have to say as it is not controlled by the government. Due to this, the government realize that the new media or alternative media is an important impartation in the political scene. Now, politicians are looking into the internet to gain communicate and display information to the mass society of internet users. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is in the blogspere at www.anwaribrahim.com, with regular updates on PKR as well as him opinions on what Malaysian the government should be doing. SMS is also another form of alternative media, in fact; it is a rather powerful form of communication tool if used wisely. Generally, there has been a passive use of SMS for politicians to pass on messages as well as information to voters from a national voter database, as well a more interactive use of it for politicians to communicate with party representatives, voters or the media (Kaur and Halimahton, 2004) A research done by Kaur and Halimahton (2004) analysed contents of several election-related SMS for the 2004 general election sent from the nomination date until a few days after the election ended that were being sent among 238 respondents. This number was the final sample for the pilot study. According to research, 51 general election-related messages sent by friends, colleagues, family members, political party members and NGOs were collected between nomination day, 13 March 2004, and polling day, 21 March 2004. Only one message could categorized as informative, provided by communication provider MAXIS, informing voters that they should check their voting status and voting location through SMS. Only a few proved to be informative and useful in helping voters with information on the general election. 19 out of 50 were shown to be ridiculing or condemning messages towards Barisan National. 60.5% of the respondents found the election-related messages to be useful and informative. 27% found the messages to be funny where as about 6% found the messages to be a nuisance. Thought most found the SMS to be useful and informative, only 31.9% were influenced to support a party of individual base on what they received. Data collected showed that the public primarily uses SMS to for jokes or to criticize certain candidates or political parties, no serious discussion was found among the sample of SMS messages to persuade voters to vote in a certain way. Another form of alternative media, Al-Jazera English (AJE) believes in their mission to provide voice to the voiceless. In a survey done by AJE on how AJE is perceived by participants, the respondents of the survey gave a ranking of more positive than negative, showing the respondents had a favourable perception of AJE with regard to how it performed the conciliatory media functions (Mohammed and Power, 2010) Among the points that participants agreed on was that AJE provided a public place for politically underrepresented groups, AJE provides multiple view points on a diversity of controversial issues and that AJE represents the interests of the international public in general rather than a specific group of people. During the protest that broke out in November 10, 2007 organized by BERSIH with the aim of reforming the electoral process, up to an estimated of 40,000 protestors came with force to draw attention from the government. What began as a peaceful protest, the Malaysian police tried to vanquish protestors with tear gas and fire hoses. The image of such going ons were shocking and while, the mainstream broadcast and print failed to cover the protests but obtain minimal coverage, AJE covered the whole thing live and in detail (Mohammed and Power, 2010) The coverage done by AJE was then placed online, on YouTube, receiving more than 250,000 viewers within the first week of the protest resulting in a largely stated influenced media resulted in the Malaysian mainstream medias largest credibility crisis to date (Mohammed and Power, 2010) Media, Politics and the Public Sphere The role of the media is to act as a safety valve to release any pent-up emotions on any issue or combination of issues facing our country; with the heavy ownership by government, the credibility and reliability of our mainstream media might die out one day. The media also acts as a public sphere that is critically important for modern societies as it serves as a forum whereby the public can communicate collectively on relevant issues as well as allowing citizens to inform or update themselves on societal developments to observe and control political, economic and other elites (Gerhards and Schafer, 2010) However, due to the hold back and tight gate-keeping from the mainstream media, Mustafa (2005) stated that the public sphere in Malaysian society has been further constrained so that ordinary citizens and concerned civil have not been able to fully express their views and to directly participate in the countrys democratic process. Earlier this year, NTV7 producer resigned in protest over his companys decision to stop his talk show from commenting on the upcoming by-election at Hulu Selangor, following pressure said to have emanated directly from the ruling coalition. A TV2 documentary on the controversial Bakun Dam and the forced relocation of Sarawaks natives was forced off the air, just before the Sibu parliamentary by-election took place. It is clear that open debate has little room to flourish in Malaysia, (Yeoh, 2010) Malaysiakini, an example of a alternative publication that flourished tremendously after the 2008 general elections. Steele (2009) stated that it is not the Internet that challenges the Barisan Nationals stranglehold power but it is actually the norms and values of independent journalism that have made MalaysiaKini such a threat to government authorities. This ideology of creating independent journalism with the alternative media not only changes those who work within the public sphere but also creates a democratic space for public discourse, one that the Malaysian society lacks. It not only gives voice to the voiceless but concrete prove or forms of information through video, audio and feedback tools. It shows media users sides of stories that they may not see. The seemingly mechanistic tools of fairness and balance, did you get the quote from the other side? become a means of guaranteeing that all voices will be heard (Steele, 2009) Conclusion The media plays an important role in the welfare of the society, working as an informer, an educator, a form of entertainment and an opinion influencer. With the current media ownership that poses credible threat and questions the credibility to the role of the media; media users need to consider, who to trust now? Political issues are highly dependent on the media as it is highlights what is important and is highly influential thus it works as a form to influence the political mind-set of media users. With the mainstream constantly bombarding pro-government issues towards society, media users now yearn for a different point of view, shifting to the alternative media to abstract that diverse opinion. In sight of how the media and politics are inter-wined, it is important that the opinions and comments of the public take place to form a democracy, in the words of Abraham Lincoln; for the people, by the people and of the people. Thus, the public sphere is important in the role to colle ct or obtain the voices of the public. The alternative media has already taken the role in proving that space for the public to take part in forming the countrys democracy; it is now up to the mainstream media to do the same, for a better political constitution of the country.

The Return of Depression Economics :: essays papers

The Return of Depression Economics From the many economy-related books available I read The Return of Depression Economics by Paul Krugman. This book was written during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990’s. Many say that Krugman wrote this book much too quickly to be fully correct on every issue that he wrote about in this book. Krugman mainly focuses on financial crises of the 1990’s and mostly on the Asian financial crisis. This book was very interesting to read even though I did not fully understand every issue he covered. In this book Krugman laid out the basic fundamentals of global economy and the choices we had to get ourselves out of the Asian financial crisis. With the Asian financial crisis done and over with, many of Krugman’s thoughts and choices are now out-of-date. Even though there were an option at the time but now dated, they were interesting and I agreed on many of his points. Krugman believes that Mexico’s crisis was a three-act play with Mexico as act one , Asia as number two and us finishing off as act three. During the 1990’s there have been many currency crises around the world. For example, Britain and Sweden in 1992 to Mexico and Argentina in 1995 to East Asia's rim in 1997 to Brazil in 1998-1999. These crises are better known as financial â€Å"panics†. There are many different things that can trigger a financial crisis but I will explain Krugman’s classic example of the â€Å"panic†. International investors in New York, Frankfurt, London, and Tokyo are known as main investors. These main investors invest their huge amounts of money in countries that they think are doing well. From this â€Å"hunch† they flood their billions of dollars, about $70 billion into Asia, into a country’s economy. If they feel that they have made a poor financial investment they quickly pull their money out of the market at huge losses. These main investors cause a stampede of smaller investors to also pull their money out of the economy at sale prices. Th is causes a panic and seems to have a snowball effect. So in effect the country that once was flooded with billions of dollars is left off worse and soon is facing economic troubles. This panic has a tendency to effect surrounding countries.

The Long Road to Recovery

The Long Road to Recovery, From a Hopeless State of Mind and Body Michael A White ENG 211 Professor Geoff Pope March 14, 2010 The Long Road to Recovery 2 The Long Road to Recovery, From a Hopeless State of Mind and Body Alcoholism and the disease of addiction have been viewed in two strong yet completely different ends of the spectrum for as long as men and women have been losing control of how much and when they drink. One end of the spectrum is the immoralist point of view, which claims the â€Å"alcoholic as not having morals† (Gary, 1999).When describing alcoholics, they have also been known to call them â€Å"sinful† or â€Å"moral weaklings† (Gary, 1999). Throughout history, the alcoholic has been ridiculed, as described by Gary Stofle in the article â€Å"The Morality of Alcoholism†: â€Å"Society has ascribed to these views as evidenced by the fact that alcoholics have been jailed just for being alcoholics in the past. At worst, alcoholics have be en killed or left to die because of society's views and from a lack of knowledge concerning treatment of alcoholism as well. At best, alcoholics have been laughed at, scorned, pitied and/or run out of town† (1999).These views of the alcoholic have caused a great many to relapse, and even die, when all that was needed was a little understanding of the disease. The biggest problem with holding this view of addiction is that it can be potentially fatal for the alcoholic of The Long Road to Recovery 3 my caliber. The other end of the spectrum that I hold to be truer, yet still don’t agree completely with, is the view of the Amoralist. â€Å"The alcoholic must also understand that he is not responsible for the things he said or did when he was drinking.The physical addiction controlled his behavior, and because he is powerless over the addiction, he cannot be held responsible for it† (Gary, 1999). My purpose in this essay is give my first-hand experience of the pain a nd despair that the disease of alcoholism can cause, and how if you are willing to do whatever it takes to end the pain and the suffering, anyone can be relieved from the same hopeless state of mind and body as I was. My name is Mike and I am an alcoholic. I am responsible for the things that I have done while being loaded.What makes me an alcoholic is that when I drink, I don’t know how much I will drink, or what I will end up doing while I am loaded; what I mean by that is when I consume alcohol or any other drug, I release my addiction all over again, and I am at the mercy of it. I lose my power of choice, between doing the right things and the wrong things. When I am loaded, there are only three places that I can end up: jails, institutions, and death. The Long Road to Recovery 4 There are three main stages regarding the disease of addictioncolon the early stage, the middle stage, and the end stage.C. H. Angel writes, â€Å"During the early stage of alcoholism an individ ual becomes more dependent upon alcohol. If a person has a stressful day, alcohol will be consumed to alter his or her mood. Alcohol is used to relieve stress on a regular basis† (2007). I remember this stage clearly, this is when I was just trying to â€Å"fit in† and be one of the â€Å"cool kids† when I still had the power to control whether or not I got drunk. (Keep in mind that when you cross from stage to stage, there is an imaginary line that you cross.You don’t know when you are about to approach it, or even when you have crossed it, but it comes and then it goes. ) The middle stage is â€Å"the point where a person desires alcohol more intensely. A person starts drinking more alcohol at one sitting. The person clearly starts losing control over his or her drinking† (Angel, 2007). When I got to this point in my life, my thoughts and actions were controlled by alcohol and drugs; just about all my actions were consumed with the thoughts of usi ng. What I mean by that is everything I did I always had thoughts of when and where was I going to get my next fix.The Long Road to Recovery 5 Angel describes the end stage as â€Å"the individual is obsessed with drinking. The individual drinks to the exclusion of all other people and all other aspects of his or her life. The individual's problems with alcohol are apparent to everyone around that person. The mental, emotional and physical health of the individual erodes rapidly in the end stage. Serious problems are present all around: physical health, mental health, financial, inter-personal relationships, financial and legal† (2007). When I hit this stage, my life, and my family’s life got turned upside down.I couldn’t hold down a job, nor did I want to, I had been to jail countless times, my family wanted nothing to do with me, and my children, didn’t even know who I really was. I myself didn’t even know who I really was. But for the grace of a loving god, and a magic place of Alcoholics Anonymous, I was able to gain control over my addiction, and I was relieved from a hopeless state of mind and body. What my life was like I am not exactly sure as to why I became an alcoholic, and I might not ever know why I was afflicted with a disease that there is no known cure.But the fact remains; I am, and I will always be one, and I am ok with it. I had a mother who The Long Road to Recovery 6 loved me dearly, and a step father who, as long as I could remember, always made me fight for his approval, attention, and even his love. I am not saying that he didn’t love me or anything of the sorts. But I always felt like I was in a competition with my sister (who is biologically his) to get a piece of him all to myself. I grew up never meeting my biological father, and still to this day I have never met him, and now it is too late, because he has been dead for a couple of years now.My mother isn’t an alcoholic, but my biolo gical father did lose his battle with his disease of addiction in 2004, so the only thing that I could safely assume is that I got the gene from him, but since he is gone I will never know for sure. For the most I had a good childhood, nothing to traumatic ever really happened to me, I lived a sheltered, uneventful life. I lived in my childhood home with my parents up till the day that I graduated from high school in 1997. I was always surrounded by people who loved, and cared for me. So I don’t completely understand where I went wrong.When I hit my bottom, I had been battling my addiction for many years. I had been in jail over and over again. â€Å"For those suffering from the disease of alcoholism it seems to be an almost universal truth that before things can get The Long Road to Recovery 7 better, they have to get worse — sometimes a lot worse† (Buddy, 2009). That was completely true for me; every incident by itself was never enough to stop doing what I was doing. Buddy writes, â€Å"Alcoholism is a progressive disease; there comes a point at which even the most dedicated drunk decides that there just might be a problem.Alcoholism does not stay in one place. It doesn’t hit a certain stage and then level off. It keeps deepening, affecting him physically, mentally, morally and spiritually. On all of those levels he keeps getting worse until finally he hits bottom† (2009). Then after years of abuse, to me and my family, it all came to a head. On October 2, 2002, my house got raided for the manufacturing of methamphetaminescomma and that was the end of life as I knew it. As a result of the house getting raided, my kids got taken away from me, and placed with my parents, because I had failed them miserably as a father. Warped lives of blameless children† is what my sponsor used to tell me; and, boy, was he right about that. My daughter was a year old and my son was two months old when they were taken away from me, becau se I was a danger to them. It is only by the grace of a loving god that nothing had happened to them that I couldn’t repair. The Long Road to Recovery 8 As a result of mine and my ex-wife’s addiction, my son is autistic. He is high functioning, yet he is still autistic, so the poor decisions that I had made, will affect him for his whole life.I spent 110 days in county jail, till I was released from jail on February 26, 2003. Even after I was released from jail, I still continued to drink and use drugs, until I quit trying to mask the pain that I felt, and tried to do something about the pain I had caused. So on March 20, 2003, I quit trying to control my life, cause my best decisions got me into the situation that I was in, from that day to this one, I have not taken a drug or a drink to hide any longer. What life is like nowWhen I quit trying to control my life, and let someone else take control, my life got better, I am not saying that it got better overnight, but i t got better. On June 6, 2003, I was checked into impatient treatment at a place called American Behavioral Health Systems, in Spokane Washington. That is when I started to get control of my demons that I had been struggling with for such a long time. That is where I had learned about myself, and my disease of addiction. I spent 3 months there working on the things that brought my life crashing down around me. The Long Road to Recovery 9While I was in treatment, I took responsibility for my actions, and the damaged that I caused. I quit trying to blame my circumstance on the people around me, and I came to the realization that all of the things that went on in my life, had one common denominator, and that was me. Once I found out what made me tick, what I wanted out of life, and how drugs and alcohol played a detrimental role in ever attaining any of those things. I learned what I needed to do to get all of the things that I wanted out of life and most importantly how I could do it without drugs and alcohol.Too much personal testimony for this research-related paper. While in treatment, I started to repair some of the damages that I had put my children and my family through. In most cases, it took time to heal the wounds. As for my children, I had supervised visits with them, while they still lived with my parents. Once I had completed impatient treatment, and moved to Yakima, I had visits with them once a week till, on February 2004, after 18 months of living with my parents, they came to live with me again. The only reason that they were able to do that was because I was no longer a anger to them. The day they came back to me was the greatest day ever. I have to admit, that I was really scared about the whole deal, because I wasn’t sure how to be a father, a sober The Long Road to Recovery 10 father. Then I came to the realization, that when I was loaded I wasn’t a father anyways. Today, I repair the damage that I have caused by not creating an ymore pain. I am the best father that I can be to my children today, and as long as I don’t get loaded today, they will never have seen me or remember seeing me loaded.As for going to jail, I haven’t been back since the last time that I got out in 2003. I took me to get clean, to realize that the only time that I had ever gone to jail was because of drugs and alcohol. So for today, I am a single father of three beautiful children, who love me with all of their hearts, no matter what I have done in the past. They know what I have done, because I don’t lie or hide who I was from them. They know that I have made mistakes, and they have forgiven me, and they love and accept me for who I am, and not who I was.If you think that you might know someone, who is suffering from the disease of addiction, as outlined in the DSM-lV (Burge & Schneider, 1999) The Long Road to Recovery 11 1. Recurrent alcohol use resulting in a failure to fulfill major role obligations at work, school or home (e. g. , repeated absences or poor work performance related to alcohol use; alcohol-related absences, suspensions or expulsions from school; neglect of children household) 2. Recurrent alcohol use in situations in which it is physically hazardous 3. (e. g. driving an automobile or operating a machine when impaired by alcohol use) 4. Recurrent alcohol-related legal problems (e. g. , arrests for alcohol-related disorderly conduct) 5. Continued alcohol use despite having persistent or recurrent social or interpersonal problems caused or exacerbated by the effects of the alcohol (e. g. , arguments with spouse about consequences of intoxication, physical fights) If you see any of these signs, don’t be afraid that you are going to hurt their feelings, because it is not about sparing their feelings, it about saving their life.The Long Road to Recovery 12 The most important thing before an alcoholic can be approached is that they show signs of a readiness to change. If the signs are not there, any attempts to make them change will fail. The readiness to change doesn’t just happen, it takes time, and the time that I talk about is presented in steps. â€Å"Precontemplation (not ready for change), contemplation (ambivalence about change), preparation (planning for change), action (the act of change) and maintenance (maintaining the new behavior)† (Burge, Schneider, 1999).Not everybody stays off of drugs and alcohol on their first try. Relapse is common in the recovery process. This usually occurs when the alcoholic doesn’t feel as if he or she had a problem. But if they are truly an alcoholic, they will eventually realize that they are, and they will ask for help. There are many places that a person can get help to solve the problems of addictions. You can go to impatient treatment, outpatient treatment, or just go straight to the rooms of alcoholics anonymous. Here is a list of some places where you can go in Washington for hel p: Good! 1.American Behavioral Health Systems, residential treatment services are The Long Road to Recovery 13 located in the Spokane Valley at 12715 E. Mission Avenue, Spokane Valley, Washington, 99216, www. abhsinc. net 2. Schick Shadel Hospital 12101 Ambaum Blvd. S. W. Seattle, Washington 98146, Tel: 1-866-938-6280 3. Sundown M. Ranch, 2280 State Route 821 Yakima, WA 98901-8302 (509) 457-0990, www. sundown. org My recovery from the disease of addiction was long and painful for me, but there is no comparison, nor would it be fair to compare the pain that I went through to the pain that the people in my life felt.The wreckage that I caused has taken a long time to repair, and I will continue on this road as long as I repair the damage that I have caused and don’t slip back into active addiction. If it wasn’t for the grace of a loving god, and the magical place of Alcoholics Anonymous, I would be able to be a father to my three wonderful children, be a son to my mother , or be a productive member of today’s society. The Long Road to Recovery14 References Gary, S. (1999). The morality of alcoholism. Retrieved Feb 28, 2010, from mentalhelp. et Angel C. H. (2007) period Alcoholism stages-understanding the progression of the disease of alcoholism. Retrieved Feb. 28, 2010, from ezinearticles. com/? Alcoholism†¦ Progression-of-the-Disease-of-Alcoholism Buddy T. (2009)period Hitting bottom, usually it must get worse before it gets better. Retrieved, Feb. 28, 2010 from About. com Burge, S. K. , and Schneider, F. D. , (1999) Alcohol related problems: Recognition and intervention. Retrieved Feb. 28, 2010, from www. aafp. org B- 86/100 = 129/150

The Great Trade Collapse: What Caused It and What Does It Mean

The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean? Richard Baldwin 27 November 2009 World trade experienced a sudden, severe, and synchronised collapse in late 2008 – the sharpest in recorded history and deepest since WWII. This ebook – written for the world's trade ministers gathering for the WTO's Trade Ministerial in Geneva – presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the collapse. Two dozen chapters, written by leading economists from across the globe, summarise the latest research on the causes of the collapse as well as its consequences and the prospects for recovery.According to the emerging consensus, the collapse was caused by the sudden, severe and globally synchronised postponement of purchases, especially of durable consumer and investment goods (and their parts and components). The impact was amplified by â€Å"compositional† and â€Å"synchronicity† effects in which international supply chains played a central role. The â€Å"great trade collapse† occurred between the third quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Signs are that it has ended and recovery has begun, but it was huge – the steepest fall of world trade in recorded history and the deepest fall since the Great Depression.The drop was sudden, severe, and synchronised. A few facts justify the label: The Great Trade Collapse. It was severe and sudden Global trade has dropped before – three times since WWII – but this is by far the largest. As Figure 1 shows, global trade fell for at least three quarters during three of the worldwide recessions that have occurred since 1965 – the oil-shock recession of 1974-75, the inflation-defeating recession of 1982-83, and the Tech-Wreck recession of 2001-02.Specifically: †¢The 1982 and 2001 drops were comparatively mild, with growth from the previous year’s quarter reaching -5% at the most. †¢The 1970s event was twice that size, with g rowth stumbling to -11%. †¢Today collapse is much worse; for two quarters in a row, world trade flows have been 15% below their previous year levels. The OECD has monthly data on its members’ real trade for the past 533 months; the 7 biggest month-on-month drops among the 533 all occurred since November 2008 (see the chapter by Sonia Araujo and Joaquim Oliveira).Figure 1 The great trade collapses in historical perspective, 1965 – 2009 Source: OECD Quarterly real trade data. The great trade collapse is not as large as that of the Great Depression, but it is much steeper. It took 24 months in the Great Depression for world trade to fall as far as it fell in the 9 months from November 2008 (Figure 2). The latest data in the figure (still somewhat preliminary) suggests a recovery is underway. Figure 2 The great trade collapses vs. the Great Depression Source: Eichengreen and O’Rourke (2009), based on CPB online data for latest.It was synchronised †¢All 104 nations on which the WTO reports data experienced a drop in both imports and exports during the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. †¢Figure 3 shows how imports and exports collapsed for the EU27 and 10 other nations that together account for three-quarters of world trade; each of these trade flows dropped by more than 20% from 2008Q2 to 2009Q2; many fell 30% or more. Figure 3 The great trade collapse, 2008 Q2 to 2009 Q2 Sources: WTO online database.Figure 4 shows that world trade in almost all product categories were positive in 2008Q2, almost all were negative in 2008Q4, and all where negative in 2009Q1. The categories most marked by international supply chains (Mechanical and electrical machinery, Precision instruments, and Vehicles) saw some of the biggest drops, and detailed empirics in the chapter by Bems, Johnson and Yi finds that supply chains were hit harder controlling for other factors. The chart, however, shows that the falls were by no means extraordin ary large in these sectors.Figure 4 All types of goods trade collapsed simultaneously Source: Comtrade database. Manufactures and commodities Trade collapsed across the board, but it is important to distinguish between commodities and manufactures. The collapse in minerals and oil trade started from a boom time and fell faster than total trade (Figure 5). The reason was prices. Food, materials and especially oil experienced a steep run up in price in early 2008; the boom ended in mid 2008 – well before the September 2008 Lehman’s debacle. The price of manufactures, by contrast, was rather steady in this period (Figure 6).Figure 5 The great trade collapse and values: Food, oil, and manufactures Source: ITC online database. Since food, fuels, and raw materials make up about a quarter of global trade, these price movements had a big impact on aggregate trade figures. Countries dependent on commodity exports, in particular oil exporters, were among those that experienced t he greatest drop in exports (see the chapters Africa by Peter Draper and Gilberto Biacuana, and by Leonce Ndikumana and Tonia Kandiero, and on India by Rajiv Kumar and Dony Alex).The drop in manufactures trade was also massive, but it involved mostly quantity reductions. Exporters specialising in durable goods manufactures saw a particularly sharp decline in their exports (see chapters on Japan by Ruyhei Wakasugi and by Kiyoyasu Tanaka). Mexico, which is both an oil exporter and a participant in the US’s manufacturing supply chain, experienced one of the world’s most severe trade slumps (see chapter by Ray Robertson). Figure 6 The great trade collapse and prices: Commodity vs. manufactures Source: CPB online database. CausesThe great trade collapse was triggered by – and helped spread – the global economic slump that has come to be called â€Å"The Great Recession. 1 As the left panel of Figure 7 shows, the OECD nations slipped into recession in this per iod, with the largest importing markets – the US, EU and Japan (the G3) – seeing their GDP growth plummet more or less in synch. The US and Europe saw negative GDP growth rates of 3 to 4%; Japan was hit far worse. Figure 7 The current recession, OECD nations and G3, 2007Q1 – 2009Q2 Note: G3 is US, EU and Japan. Source: OECD online data base.Why did trade fall so much more than GDP? Given the global recession, a drop in global trade is unsurprising. The question is: Why was it so big? The chapter by Caroline Freund shows that during the four large, postwar recessions (1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001) world trade dropped 4. 8 times more than GDP (also see Freund 2009). This time the drop was far, far larger. From a historical perspective (Figure 8), the drop is astonishing. The figure shows the trade-to-GDP ratio rising steeply in the late 1990s, before stagnating in the new century right up to the great trade collapse in 2008.The rise in the 1990s is explained by a nu mber of factors including trade liberalisation. A key driver, however, was the establishment of international supply chains (manufacturing was geographically unbundled with various slices of the value-added process being placed in nearby nations). This unbundling meant that the same value-added crossed borders several times. In a simple international supply chain, imported parts would be transformed into exported components which were in turn assembled into final goods and exported again, so the trade figures counted the final value added several times.As we shall see, the presences of these highly integrated and tightly synchronised production networks plays an important role in the nature of the great trade collapse (see chapters by Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, and Kei-Mu Yi, and by Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis, and Linda Tesar). Figure 8 World trade to world GDP ratio, 1980Q1 to 2009Q2 Source: World imports from OECD online data base; World GDP based on IMF data. Emerging conse nsus on the causes Economists around the world have been working hard to understand the causes of this unusually large and abrupt shut down of international trade.The dozen chapters in Part II of this book summarise all the key research – most of it done by the authors themselves. They do not all agree on all points, but a consensus is emerging. When sales drop sharply – and the great trade collapse was a gigantic drop in international sales – economists look for demand shocks and/or supply shocks. The emerging consensus is that the great trade collapse was mostly a demand shock – although supply side factors played some role. The demand shock operated through two distinct but mutually reinforcing channels: †¢Commodity prices – which tumbled when the rice bubble burst in mid 2008 – continued to follow world demand in its downward spiral. The price movements and diminished demand sent the value and volume of commodities trade diving. â⠂¬ ¢The production and exports of manufacturing collapsed as the Lehman’s-induced shock-and-awe caused consumers and firms to wait and see; private demand for all manner of ‘postpone-able’ consumption crashed. This second point was greatly amplified by the very particular nature of the demand shock that hit the world’s economy in September 2008. Why so big? This consensus view, however, is incomplete.It raises the question: If the trade drop was demand driven, why was the trade drop so much larger than the GDP drop? The answer provided by the emerging consensus is that the nature of the demand shock interacted with â€Å"compositional† and â€Å"synchronicity† effects to greatly exaggerate the movement of the trade-to-GDP ratio. Compositional effect The compositional effect turns on the peculiar nature of the demand shock. The demand shock was very large, but also focused on a narrow range of domestic value-added activities – the produ ction of â€Å"postponeable† goods, consumer durables and investment goods.This demand drop immediately, reducing demand for all related intermediate inputs (parts and components, chemicals, steel, etc). The compositional-effect argument is founded on the fact that postponeables make up a narrow slice of world GDP, but a very large slice of the world trade (Figure 9). In a nutshell, the common cause of the GDP and trade collapse – a sudden drop in the demand for postponeables – operated with full force on trade but diminished force on GDP due to the compositional difference.The large demand shock applied to the near-totality of trade while only applying to a thin portion of GDP. Here is a simple example. 2 Suppose exports consisted of 90% â€Å"postponeable† (consumer and investment electronics, transport equipment, machinery and their parts and components). GDP, however, consists most of non-tradeables (services, etc). Taking postponeables’ share in US GDP to be 20%, the pre-crisis situation is: When the sales of postponeables slumps by, say, half, the numerator falls much more than the denominator.Assuming that †other† continues growth in trade and GDP by 2%, the post-crisis trade to GDP ratio is Exports have fallen 44. 8% in this example, while GDP has fallen only 8. 4%. In short, the different composition of trade and GDP, taken together with the specific nature of the demand shock, has resulted in trade falling more than 5 times as fast as GDP. See the chapter by Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis, and Linda Tesar for a careful investigation of this logic using detailed US production and trade data; they find that the compositional effect accounts for most of the US trade drop.The chapter by Joseph Francois and Julia Woerz uses US and Chinese data to argue that the compositional effect is key to understanding the trade collapse. 3 Figure 9 Composition of world goods trade Source: WTO online database for 2007. Sync hronicity effect The synchronicity effect helps explain why the great trade collapse was so great in an even more direct manner; almost every nation’s imports and exports fell at the same time. There was none of the averaging out that occurred in the three other postwar trade drops. But why was it so synchronised?There are two leading explanations for the remarkable synchronicity. The first concerns international supply chains, the second concerns the ultimate cause of the Great Recession. The profound internationalisation of the supply chain that has occurred since the 1980s – specifically, the just-in-time nature of these vertically integrated production networks – served to coordinate, i. e. rapidly transmit, demand shocks. Even a decade ago, a drop in consumer sales in the US or Europe took months to be transmitted back to the factories and even longer to reach the suppliers of those factories.Today, Factory Asia is online. Hesitation by US and European cons umers is transmitted almost instantly to the entire supply chain, which reacts almost instantly by producing and buying less; trade drops in synch, both imports and exports. For example, during the 2001 trade collapse, monthly data for 52 nations shows that 39% of the month-nation pairs had negative growth for both imports and exports. In the 2008 crisis the figure is 83%. For details on this point, see Di Giovanni, Julian and Andrei Levchenko (2009), Yi (2009), and the chapters by Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, and Kei-Mu Yi, and by Kiyoyasu Tanaka.The second explanation requires a bit of background and a bit of conjecture (macroeconomists have not arrived at a consensus on the causes of the Great Recession). To understand the global shock to the demand for traded goods, we need a thumbnail sketch of the global crisis. How the subprime crisis became the global crisis The â€Å"Subprime Crisis† broke out in August 2007. For 13 months, the world viewed this as a financial crisi s that was mainly restricted to the G7 nations who had mismanaged their monetary and regulatory policy – especially the US and the UK.Figure 3 shows that world trade continued growing apace in 2007 and early 2008. The crisis metastasised from the â€Å"Subprime Crisis† to the global crisis in September 2008. The defining moment came when the US Treasury allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt. This shocked the global financial community since they had assumed no major financial institution would be allowed to go under. Many of the remaining financial institutions were essentially bankrupt in an accounting sense, so no one knew who might be next. Bankers stopped lending to each other and credit markets froze.The Lehman bankruptcy, however, was just one of a half dozen â€Å"impossible events† that occurred at this time. Here is a short list of others:4 †¢All big investment banks disappeared. †¢The US Fed lent $85 billion to an insuran ce company (AIG), borrowing money from the US Treasury to cover the loan. †¢A US money market fund lost so much that it could not repay its depositors capital. †¢US Treasury Secretary Paulson asked the US Congress for three-quarters of a trillion dollars based on a 3-page proposal; he had difficulties in answering direct questions about how the money would fix the problem. The hereto laissez-faire US Securities and Exchange Commission banned short selling of bank stocks to slow the drop in financial institutions stock prices. It didn’t work. †¢Daniel Gros and Stephano Micossi (2009) pointed out that European banks were too big to fail and too big to save (their assets were often multiples of the their home nations’ GDPs); †¢Congress said â€Å"no† to Paulson’s ill-explained plan, promising its own version. As people around the world watched this unsteady and ill-explained behaviour of the US government, a massive feeling of insecurity formed.Extensive research in behavioural economics shows that people tend to act in extremely risk averse ways when gripped by fears of the unknown (as opposed to when they are faced with risk, as in a game of cards, where all outcomes can be enumerated and assigned a probability). Fall 2008 was a time when people really had no idea what might happen. This is Ricardo Caballero’s hypothesis of â€Å"Knightian Uncertainty† (i. e. the fear of the unknown) which has been endorsed by the IMF’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard. Consumers, firms, and investors around the world decided to â€Å"wait and see† – to hold off on postponeable purchases and investments until they could determine how bad things would get. The delaying of purchases and investments, the redressing of balance sheets and the switching of wealth to the safest assets caused what Caballero has called â€Å"sudden financial arrest† (a conscious reference to the usually fatal medi cal condition â€Å"sudden cardiac arrest†). The â€Å"fear factor† spread across the globe at internet speed. Consumers, firms and investors all feared that they’d find out what capitalism without the capital would be like.They independently, but simultaneously decided to shelf plans for buying durable consumer and investment goods and indeed anything that could be postponed, including expensive holidays and leisure travel. In previous episodes of declining world trade, there was no Lehman-like event to synchronise the wait-and-see stance on a global scale. The key points as concerns the trade and GDP collapse: †¢As the fear factor was propagating via the electronic press; the transmission was global and instantaneous. †¢The demand shock to GDP and the demand shock to trade occurred simultaneously. â€Å"Postponeable† sector production and trade were hit first and hardest. There are a number of indications that this is the right story. First, g lobal trade in services did not, in general, collapse (see the chapter by Aditya Mattoo and Ingo Borchert). Interestingly, one of the few categories of services trade that did collapse was tourism – the ultimate postponeable. Second, macroeconomists’ investigations into the transmission mechanisms operating in this crisis show that none of the usual transmission vectors – trade in goods, international capital flows, and financial crisis contagion – were esponsible for the synchronisation of the global income drop (Rose and Spiegel 2009). Supply-side effects The Lehman-link â€Å"sudden financial arrest† froze global credit markets and spilled over on the specialized financial instruments that help grease the gears of international trade – letters of credit and the like. From the earliest days of the great trade collapse, analysts suspected that a lack of trade-credit financing was a contributing factor (Auboin 2009). As the chapter by Jesse Mora and William Powers argues, such supply-side shocks have been important in the past.Careful research on the 1997 Asian crisis (Amiti and Weinstein 2009) and historical bank crises (see the chapter by Leonardo Iacovone and Veronika Zavacka) provide convincing evidence that credit conditions can affect trade flows. The Mora and Powers chapter, however, finds that declines in global trade finance have not had a major impact on trade flows. While global credit markets in general did freeze up, trade finance declined only moderately in most cases. If anything, US cross-border bank financing bounced back earlier than bank financing from other sources.In short, trade financing had at most a moderate role in reducing global trade. Internationalised supply chains are a second potential source of supply shocks. One could imagine that a big drop in demand combined with deteriorating credit conditions might produce widespread bankruptcies among trading firms. Since the supply chain is a cha in, bankruptcy of even a few links could suppress trade along the whole chain. The chapters by Peter Schott (on US data), by Lionel Fontagne and Guillaume Gaulier (on French data), and by Ruyhei Wakasugi (on Japanese data) present evidence that such disruptions did not occur this time.They do this by looking at very disaggregated data (firm-level data in the Fontagne-Gaulier chapter) and distinguishing between the so-called â€Å"intensive† and â€Å"extensive† margins of trade. These margins decompose changes in trade flows into changes in sales across existing trade relations (intensive) and changes in the number of such relations (extensive). If the supply-chain-disruption story were an important part of the great trade collapse, these authors should have found that the extensive margin was important.The authors, however, find that the great trade collapse has been primarily driven by the intensive margin – by changes in pre-existing trade relationships. Trad e fell because firms sold less of products that they were already selling; there was very little destruction of trade relationships as would be the case if the extensive margin had been found to be important. This findings may be due to the notion of †hysteresis in trade† (Baldwin 1988), namely, that large and sunk market-entry costs imply that firms are reluctant to exit markets in the face of temporary shocks.Instead of exiting, they merely scale back their operations, waiting for better times. Protectionism is the final supply shock commonly broached as a cause of the great trade collapse. The chapter by Simon Evenett documents the rise in crisis-linked protectionist measures. While many measures have been put in place – on average, one G20 government has broken its no-protection pledge every other day since November 2008 – they do not yet cover a substantial fraction of world trade. Protection, in short, has not been a major cause of the trade collapse so far.Prospects The suddenness of the 2008 trade drop holds out the hope of an equally sudden recovery. If the fear-factor-demand-drop was the driver of the great trade collapse, a confidence-factor-demand-revival could equally drive a rapid restoration of trade to robust growth. If it was all a demand problem, after all, little long-lasting damage will have been done. See the chapter by Ruyhei Wakasugi on this. There are clear signs that trade is recovering, and it is absolutely clear that the drop has halted. Will the trade revival continue?No one can know the future path of global economic recovery – and this is the key to the trade recovery. It is useful nonetheless to think of the global economic crisis as consisting of two very different crises: a banking-and-balance-sheet crisis in the over-indebted advanced nations (especially the US and UK), on one hand, and an expectations-crisis in most of the rest of the world on the other hand. In the US, UK and some other G7 na tions, the damage done by the bursting subprime bubble is still being felt.Their financial systems are still under severe strain. Bank lending is sluggish and corporate-debt issuances are problematic. Extraordinary direct interventions by central banks in the capital markets are underpinning the economic recovery. For these nations, the crisis – specifically the Subprime Crisis – has caused lasting damage. Banks, firms and individuals who over-leveraged during what they thought was the †great moderation† are now holding back on consumption and investment in an attempt to redress their balance sheets (Bean 2009).This could play itself out like the lost decade Japan experienced in the 1990s (Leijonhufvud 2009, Kobayashi 2008); also see the chapter by Michael Ferrantino and Aimee Larsen. For most nations in the world, however, this is not a financial crisis – it is a trade crisis. Many have reacted by instituting fiscal stimuli of historic proportions, but their banks and consumers are in relatively good shape, having avoided the overleveraging in the post tech-wreck period (2001-2007) that afflicted many of the G7 economies.The critical question is whether the damage to the G7’s financial systems will prevent a rapid recovery of demand and a restoration of confidence that will re-start the investment engine. In absence of a crystal ball, the chapter by Baldwin and Taglioni undertakes simple simulations that assume trade this time recovers at the pace it did in the past three global trade contractions (1974, 1982 and 2001). In those episodes, trade recovered to its pre-crisis path 2 to 4 quarters after the nadir.Assuming that 2009Q2 was the bottom of the great trade collapse – again an assumption that would require a crystal ball to confirm – this means trade would be back on track by mid 2010. Forecasts are never better than the assumptions on which they are built, so such calculations must be viewed as what- if scenarios rather than serious forecasts. Implications What does the great trade collapse mean for the world economy? The authors of this Ebook present a remarkable consensus on this.Three points are repeatedly stressed: †¢Global trade imbalances are a problem that needs to be tackled. One group of authors (see the chapters by Fred Bergsten, by Anne Krueger, and by Jeff Frieden) sees them as one the root causes of the Subprime Crisis. They worry that allowing them to continue is setting up the world for another global economic crisis. Fred Bergsten in particular argues that the US must get its federal budget deficit in order to avoid laying the carpet for the next crisis.Another group points to the combination of Asian trade surpluses and persistent high unemployment in the US and Europe as a source of protectionist pressures (see the chapters by Caroline Freund, by Simon Evenett, and by Richard Baldwin and Daria Taglioni). The chapter by O’Rourke notes that avoiding a protectionist backlash will require that the slump ends soon, and that severe exchange rate misalignments at a time of rising unemployment are avoided. †¢Governments should guard against compliancy in their vigil against protectionism.Most authors mention the point that while new protectionism to date has had a modest trade effect, things need not stay that way. The chapter by Simon Evenett is particularly clear on this point. There is much work to be done before economists fully understand the great trade collapse, but the chapters in this Ebook constitute a first draft of the consensus that will undoubtedly emerge from the pages of scientific journals in two or three years’ time. Footnotes 1 See Di Giovanni and Levchenko (2009) for evidence on how the shock was transmitted via international production networks. This is drawn from Baldwin and Taglioni (2009). 3 Jon Eaton, Sam Kortum, Brent Neiman and John Romalis make similar arguments with data from many nations in an unpublished manuscript dated October 2009. 4 See the excellent timeline of the crisis by the New York Fed. 5 Caballero (2009a, b) and Blanchard (2009). References Auboin, Marc (2009). â€Å"The challenges of trade financing†, VoxEU. org, 28 January 2009. Baldwin, Richard (1988). â€Å"Hysteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect†, American Economic Review, 78, 4, pp 773-785, 1988.Baldwin, Richard and Daria Taglioni (2009). â€Å"The illusion of improving global imbalances†, VoxEU. org, 14 November 2009. Bean, Charles (2009). â€Å"The Great Moderation, the Great Panic and the Great Contraction†, Schumpeter Lecture, European Economic Association, Barcelona, 25 August 2009. Blanchard, Olivier (2009). â€Å"(Nearly) nothing to fear but fear itself†, Economics Focus column, The Economist print edition, 29 January 2009. Caballero, Ricardo (2009a). â€Å"A global perspective on the great financial insurance run: Causes, consequences, and solutions (Part 2)†, VoxEU. rg, 23 January 2009. Caballero, Ricardo (2009b). â€Å"Sudden financial arrest†, VoxEU. org, 17 November 2009. Di Giovanni, Julian and Andrei Levchenko (2009). †International trade, vertical production linkages, and the transmission of shocks†, VoxEU. org, 11 November 2009.Freund, Caroline (2009a). â€Å"The Trade Response to Global Crises: Historical Evidence†, World Bank working paper. Gros, Daniel and Stefano Micossi (2009). â€Å"The beginning of the end game†¦Ã¢â‚¬ , VoxEU. org, 20 September 2008. Kobayashi, Keiichiro (2008). Financial crisis management: Lessons from Japan’s failure†, VoxEU. org, 27 October 2008. Leijonhufvud, Axel (2009). â€Å"No ordinary recession†, VoxEU. org, 13 February 2009. Rose, Andrew and Mark Spiegel (2009). â€Å"Searching for international contagion in the 2008 financial crisis†, VoxEU. org, 3 October 2009. Yi, Kei-Mu (2009), â€Å"The collapse of global trade: Th e role of vertical specialisation†, in Baldwin and Evenett (eds), The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis: Recommendations for the G20, a VoxEU publication.

Participating in NaNoWriMo 2018 Caution! - Jerry Jenkins

Participating in NaNoWriMo 2018 Caution! - Jerry Jenkins Participating in NaNoWriMo 2019? Caution! This wildly popular phenomenon,National Novel Writing Month, starts November 1, and you’re urged to write an entire novel by the end of the month. Wouldn’t it be great to actually finish a 50,000-word novel in 30 days? Since 1999, that very idea has inspired millions of writers from all over the world to embark on this journey. In 2015alone, more than 430,000 finished their manuscripts, and NaNoWriMo refers to them as novelists. Sounds fabulous, right? Need help writing your novel?Click here to download my ultimate 12-step guide. NaNoWriMo Benefits Well, I can’t argue with the upsides: The NaNoWriMo folks â€Å"believe stories matter.† So do I. And in the last 18 years since this effort began, countless writers have raved to me that NaNoWriMo was the vehicle that finally motivated them to actually finish. That’s no small thing. Over my four decades teaching writing, I’ve learned that the single most debilitating barrier to writers finishing writing their novels has been fear- fear that kills impetus. I can’t count the number who have told me they can’t get started, let alone finish. And as my film director son says about movies, simply producing one is a major accomplishment, let alone a good one. He compliments novice filmmakers for merely finishing. The same is true about writing a novel. So, yes, I’m all for anything that motivates a would-be novelist to start and (more importantly) to finish. NaNoWriMo Downsides However, I also have reservations. Now, hear me, I’m not trying to talk you out of trying this. If it’s the trigger that results in your first finished novel, bravo! But let’s take a closer look: NaNoWriMo reports that over the years, 250 of its participants have seen their manuscripts sell to traditional publishing houses. That means the authors were paid to be published rather than paying to be printed. Nothing to sneeze at. Until you do the math. A rule of thumb in book publishing is that an unsolicited manuscript has about a 1 in 1,000 chance of landing a traditional book deal. While the figure may be unscientific, it’s not hyperbole. That’s why I teach writing and publishing- so you can improve your odds. What are the odds your NaNoWriMo 2019 manuscript will be traditionally published? Without knowing the total number of novels written since the effort began (this is its 17th year), it’s impossible to say. But one thing I can say for certain: The odds are way worse than 1 in 1,000. In fact, if every success story had happened last year alone- in other words, had all 250 published novels come from only the 431,626 NaNoWriMo manuscripts completed last year- your chances of ultimate success would be 1 in more than 1,725. But those 250 traditionally published novels have come from all the NaNoWriMo manuscripts written since 1999. While not every year would have represented more than 400,000 writers, surely the total is in the millions. My NaNoWriMo 2019 Caution? Need help writing your novel?Click here to download my ultimate 12-step guide. As a writing coach, my goal is to help get your work to where it’s marketable to traditional publishers. That’s the sole purpose of this blog and The Jerry Jenkins Writers Guild. So, far be it from me to criticize a well-intentioned program like NaNoWriMo. It appears to me their goal is not to see you finish a pristine manuscript ready for the marketplace. Their aim, and it’s a worthy one, is to encourage. NaNoWriMo serves to prove to you that you can both start and finish a novel of at least 50,000 words. And that’s just what many writers need. If you believe it would work for you, motivate you, get you to finally get going on your novel, I say go for it. My caution is to not make more of the result than it deserves. The benefit: You knock out a first draft. The danger: You assume your work is done. Bottom line: I applaud NaNoWriMo for what it’s meant to so many writers who need a deadline to finally finish novel manuscripts. I urge you to see the result as only that for now. Finishing your novel doesn’t make you a novelist. You’re still an aspiring novelist, and I’d LOVE to see you fulfill your dream. I’ve harped on this before: If getting traditionally published were easy, anyone could do it. The last part of the process that can be done quickly is getting your first draft down. Just realize that if you were building a house, what you would have after a month of frenzied work is the foundation and shell. Your novel’s foundation has been laid, and its studded shell is standing. Now how long will it take to wire it, plumb it, drywall it, trim it, paint it, and furnish it? A lot longer than a month, I can tell you that. And I’ve averaged an output of four books a year since 1974. Some things can’t- and simply shouldn’t- be rushed. If you’re gearing up for next month’s NaNoWriMo 2019 challenge, I wish you the best. Check back here the first week of December for what to do next. My hope is that your foundation and frame are ready for a lot of finish work. Will you participate in NaNoWriMo 2019? What will your writing schedule look like? Let me know in the comments below.

Example Biographical Statement †Scholarship Essay

Example Biographical Statement – Scholarship Essay Free Online Research Papers Example Biographical Statement Scholarship Essay Biographical Statement: Write an essay, describing yourself, your personal qualities, present activities, academic/professional accomplishments or ambitions for the future. The essay should be completed on this page.Born to a small Thai-Chinese family, I have been raised in a hard-working environment and involved with well-educated people since I was young. This ambient has helped me to develop strengths in myself such as being a good listener and quick learner with persevering nature. In my view, they are the starting point of my current ambitions and have played a big part in my successes in my past educations and working. For my academic life, I have had good chances to study in prestigious institutions which significantly enhance my creativity, initiative, and leadership. At the undergraduate level, I had also collected substantial amount of achievement awards from my institutions. For instance, I received tuition-waiving scholarships for outstanding students twice; and, when I was in the fourth year, I was elected as president of 700 senior engineering students and became a member of Chulalongkorn Graduate Council at the end of that academic year. After graduating from Chulalongkorn, I have substantially attained my professional and academic goals. In 1999, for example, I was one of few Thais who received the British Government Scholarships to pursue postgraduate studies in the UK. Furthermore, I was one of only five students who were awarded degrees with distinction for the overall MSc Finance courses and for my master’s dissertation. These successes in the past years are clearly a result of my personal strengths and opportunities I have always obtained. Finally, by looking ahead, I have intended to get myself heavily trained in the WBS doctoral programme to acquire excellent research and teaching skills to ensure the first-class contribution in my future academic profession. I am confident that this training, together with my consistently-cultivated strengths, are considered beneficial not only to myself or Dhurakijpundit University as my prospective sponsor but also to Thai students and business communities as a whole. Research Papers on Example Biographical Statement - Scholarship EssayStandardized TestingInfluences of Socio-Economic Status of Married MalesPersonal Experience with Teen PregnancyAppeasement Policy Towards the Outbreak of World War 2Analysis of Ebay Expanding into AsiaThe Relationship Between Delinquency and Drug UseResearch Process Part OneThe Project Managment Office SystemEffects of Television Violence on ChildrenOpen Architechture a white paper

Analysing The Queens Received Pronunciation English Language Essay

Analysing The Queens Received Pronunciation English Language Essay The purpose of this project is to identify if the Queen speaks with the same polished Received Pronunciation (RP) accent today as she did 50 years ago and whether there have been any generational variations to the RP spoken within the Royal Family. Firstly this project will introduce the subject of sociolinguistics with a focus on the differences between accents and dialects and the history and rules pertaining to RP. Secondly, current opinions and attitudes will be discussed along with recent research that has been carried out examining the decline of RP. Lastly it will analyse findings from my own comparisons of three Royal Family dialogues. Sociolinguistics is the study of the relationship between language and society, and how society influences or affects the way in which language is used by individuals or groups (Crystal, 2008). When a person talks it is easy to recognise regional differences in their speech as everyone has an accent or dialect and this can often lead to assump tions about their background, education and even their place in society. It is important to understand the difference between an accent and a dialect as they are two very different aspects of speech. An accent refers to the differences in pronunciation only (Crystal, 2008), for example, a speaker with a southern accent would pronounce /a/ using long vowel /a:/ whereas a speaker with a northern accent would pronounce /a/ with a short vowel /à ¦/: Long vowel, Southern Short vowel, Northern Bath /bÉ‘:ÃŽÂ ¸/ /bà ¦ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸/ Grass /gra:s/ /grà ¦s/ Demand /di:ma:nd/ /di:mà ¦nd/ A dialect however refers to the features of pronunciation along with grammar and vocabulary such as sentence structure and use of verbs. For example: Standard English Regional Dialect She is a good girl She’s a canny lass (Geordie/Newcastle) How are you? Ow bist old butt? (Forest of Dean) He is frightened He’s feeling frit (Lincolnshire) I’ll visit in the Autumn I’ll visi t in the fall (American English) An accent and a dialect can both give an indication as to the speaker’s geographical origin (Crystal, 2008). Due the growing variety of accents and dialects in the UK, a ‘Standard English’ (SE) has emerged that is taught in schools and used in print and broadcasting. It is also the standard taught to speakers of foreign languages. The phrase Received Pronunciation was initially coined in 1869 by the linguist A J Ellis but the phonetician, Daniel Jones, was the first person to adopt it to describe the accent of the social elite (British Library). Received Pronunciation (RP) is an accent that is associated with being typically British and is also known as ‘The Queens English’ or ‘BBC English’ as it is seen as a prestige accent (Graddol, Leith & Swann, 1996). No specific authority gave the accent its special status but as RP is spoken mainly in the south east it is generally associated with that area but it is found all over the country. It is a non specific accent as it gives no indication of a speaker’s geographical origin however it does reveal information about their social and educational background.

Plastic Surgery Dissertation Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Plastic Surgery - Dissertation Example The concept of the script is to illustrate cruel beauty. The collection entails the clothes suitable for the autumn/winter of 2017. The clothes are menswear. Savage beauty under the context relates to the Japanese tattoo, the corset as well as plastic surgery. The use of the three beautification approaches is ancient in their form. From ancient civilizations, people are particular regarding enhancement of beauty. The use of the corset explains a garment that tends to befit the wearer into a shape that fits the garment and not the human. The Japanese’s tattoo reveals extreme measures. The clothing tends to train the torso into an aesthetic form. A view of the history includes the use of the corset by both genders with the most ancient picture of the attire being 2000BC to appear (Lemire and Riello, 2008: p.912). On the other hand, the Japanese tattoo explains the instance of body decoration. The implication is that the skin is a garment and one that cannot fade away after the a pplication of the ink. The tattoos have particular reasons such as for decorative or spiritual ends. The tattoos first image to come into contact with the modern man tends to date back to about 10,000BC (Westlake, 2012). On the other hand, plastic surgery is the alteration of the body form or the subsequent restoration. The practice dates back to the Old Kingdom that was in rule between 3000-2500BC (Westlake, 2012).The practices were also in practise in the ancient civilization of Egypt as per the Papyrus by Edwin Smith. However, the instance was in the repair of noses.

The Banatao Brothers Build Boards for the Green Wave Assignment

The Banatao Brothers Build Boards for the Green Wave - Assignment Example 1.2 Cost In USA cost of any entrepreneur to run the shop is at least $400 while average hourly manufacturing cost for Asian competitors is $2.50. Minimum purchase price for polyurethane board in the country is around $300 but Asian competitors can manufacture the same product at five times a cheaper price. 1.3 Stringent Business Environment Domestic surf board entrepreneurs are searching headway to compete against cheap import from Asia but till now there is no sign of relief for them. In 2005, surfboard blanks a domestic manufacturer closed their business due to stringent cost competition from Asian counterparts. Government announced hike in the raw material cost to manufacture due untamable recession started in 2007. Clark Foam was the major supplier of polyurethane blanks for surfboard manufacturers but after recession price of polyurethane blank has increased. In this condition Clark Foam ceased production in the year 2007. After the closure of Clark Foam, small and midsized entr epreneurs do not have any choice but close business due to zero inventory of polyurethane blanks inventory. At that time big players banked on existing polyurethane blanks inventory while the condition was perfect storm for small entrepreneurs like Banatao Brothers due to various reasons like loss of main supplier, low priced import from Asia and slump in bottom line. Domestic sales volume for surf board manufacturers has decreased ten percent in last five years due to low cost import from Asia (Rizzo). 2.0 Support Required for Entrepreneur & Source of Support 2.1 Import Quota According to Professor Hill, import quota can be described as direct restraint on quantity of imported goods. Import quota is directly connected with issuing import license to business organization or individual. For example, Federal Government can create trade barriers for Asian competitors by setting annual import limit for polyurethane blanks and other surf board materials. In this way government can help s mall entrepreneurs from international competition and domestic big players (Hill 205-210). 2.2 Environmentally Friendly Materials Banatao Brothers have planned to manufacture Entropy surfboard with sugar beet foam core that is wrapped in hemp cloth instead of a polyurethane foam core encased in fiberglass. This is a green initiative by them and they need further research on creating bio surfboard. They can take help of various university research scholars having expertise in green technology. Further research on chemical composition of sugar beet foam core might help them to create more diversified product line in future. The company is currently taking help from Bayer Corporation but in future taking help from USA universities will decrease their cost on research & development (Boone, and Kurtz 33). 3.0 Lifestyle Changes and Opportunity 3.1 What Customers Buy Surfing industry is worth of $7 billion and its business pattern is constantly evolving with respect to customer demand. In recent years customers of USA are showing their back to petrochemical based surfing board material due to its poor durability in contrast to

Internet fame Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Internet fame - Essay Example Although I personally never experienced a breach of privacy or leakage of important information, I’ve known friends who had thus suffered. A friend of mine had the most embarrassing experience, as her pajama party photographs got leaked into the public domain. She posted the pictures in her Facebook profile, setting access to only those who are her friends. But perhaps as a result of someone hacking into her profile and downloading these pictures, they got out into the public domain of the Internet. A big fan of social networking sites like Facebook, my friend is yet to overcome the embarrassment caused by the leak. She is now very hesitant to post or share any sensitive information in these sites and is regretful that she trusted them in the past. It makes sense for her to exercise caution from now on, for these leaks could prove very costly. In this instance she only has to bear through minor social embarrassment. But there are leaks that could prove more damaging, as in hav ing one’s credit card details hacked or professional accounts becoming accessible to miscreants. If this were to happen, she could face severe monetary loss or a dent to her professional reputation. Hence, she has to take all precautions in the future to avoid these

Ethics and Leadership Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Ethics and Leadership - Essay Example reporting relationship of the CECOs, as in to whom should they report, and that CECOs should be given the power to enforce the standards at all levels. Not only that but they should also â€Å"have direct, unfiltered access to the governing authority to solicit advice and receive information† (Kavanagh, 2007). The paper outlines the responsibilities that a CECO has in an organization s/he is assigned to, proposing that for a CECO to effectively do his/her job, it is essential that s/he be provided with adequate resources. The paper also remarks on the professional and personal skills, qualifications and characteristics that a CECO must possess to be successful at his/her job, also recommending that the CECO be made to continue his/her education and training. Ethics is basically a study of what is the right thing to do in any given situation and what is morally, not in a religious context, correct. It is to do something right. Leadership is also concerned with action, and effective leadership is where the leader guides his/her followers to the right path and, ultimately, towards success. In essence both ethics and leadership are intertwined in the sense that without ethics there is no effective leadership. There is a strong link between the two as it is often the leadership that comes from adhering to ethics that leads to success in any given situation in life, whether it is in a personal capacity or a professional

Experimental Research Design Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Experimental Design - Research Paper Example Difficulties in adjustment typically manifest in forms of the child later being involved in troubled relationships with their partners or spouses, substance abuse etc (Franke, 1983). This study will discuss a research design that will attempt to evaluate the validity of these claims. That is, we will design a research that carries out an impact evaluation of the conditions created by Our population of interest is people who as children witnessed divorces of their parents. Since we are concerned with how these people adjust to life after growing up, we want to evaluate the quality of life of grownups whose parents were divorced. For each treatment we shall evaluate whether the mean was different. For instance, consider the variable ‘age’. The way the impact of this variable will be evaluated is, we shall look at differences in mean age among groups I to IV. Similarly for each of the other three treatments, we shall look at whether the mean scores of the variables differ across the groups. If we find significant differences, then this will imply that the variable for which such a difference was found indeed has an influence on the impact of parent’s divorce on the child’s adjustment. The research design here is essentially a â€Å"Posttest only Control group† type for each separate treatment. Defining the age treatment as â€Å"treatment T>0 if age was greater or equal to 3 years† the diagram for this test can be shown as follows: Barber, B.L. & Eccles, J.S. (1992). Long term influence of divorce in single parenting and adolescent families and work related values, behaviors, and aspirations. Psychological Bulletin, 111, 108-126. Forehand, R., Wierson, M., McCombs, A., Thomas, R., Fauber, L.A., Kempton, T., & Long, N. (1991). A short-term longitudinal examination of young adolescent functioning following divorce: The role of family factors. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 100,

Aramex Product Strategy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Aramex Product Strategy - Essay Example For a very long time, the company had focused its attention on the areas of international and domestic express, freight forwarding, and logistics. But due to the need to retain its stage on the product lifecycle as a maturing company, there has been the introduction of the shopping and shipping system as a new product development to match up the new class. With this new dimension, the company is able to deal with a larger population size without thinking of proximity as a limitation2. This is said against the backdrop that the company is fired up now to use the power of technology not only to make customers visit their shops to buy products, but to shop online and have their products shipped to them. As far as the new paradigm is concerned, it can be said that the major core physical service offered by Aramex is electronic commerce, which is commonly called e-commerce. This is actually imbedded in the shop and ship system of business whereby customers are enabled to make purchases online via the use of the internet. Judging from the modern business trend, there is no way that Aramex could exempt itself from this new dimension and expect to see any forms of phenomenal growth3. This is because the birth of modern technology is making all stakeholders begin to look for the easiest ways out to achieve the same kind of results that they attained in the past years. There is no denying the fact that the use of electronic system of commerce reduces the staff-customer personal and face-to-face interaction4. This notwithstanding, Aramex has not been enticed to forget about the importance of customer service and the need to ensuring customer satisfaction. The company actually guarantees customer service and customer satisfaction through a 24 hour customer support unit where all complaints and questions of customers are addressed on an instantaneous and live basis. These customers also have a feedback system

Experimental Research Design Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Experimental Design - Research Paper Example Difficulties in adjustment typically manifest in forms of the child later being involved in troubled relationships with their partners or spouses, substance abuse etc (Franke, 1983). This study will discuss a research design that will attempt to evaluate the validity of these claims. That is, we will design a research that carries out an impact evaluation of the conditions created by Our population of interest is people who as children witnessed divorces of their parents. Since we are concerned with how these people adjust to life after growing up, we want to evaluate the quality of life of grownups whose parents were divorced. For each treatment we shall evaluate whether the mean was different. For instance, consider the variable ‘age’. The way the impact of this variable will be evaluated is, we shall look at differences in mean age among groups I to IV. Similarly for each of the other three treatments, we shall look at whether the mean scores of the variables differ across the groups. If we find significant differences, then this will imply that the variable for which such a difference was found indeed has an influence on the impact of parent’s divorce on the child’s adjustment. The research design here is essentially a â€Å"Posttest only Control group† type for each separate treatment. Defining the age treatment as â€Å"treatment T>0 if age was greater or equal to 3 years† the diagram for this test can be shown as follows: Barber, B.L. & Eccles, J.S. (1992). Long term influence of divorce in single parenting and adolescent families and work related values, behaviors, and aspirations. Psychological Bulletin, 111, 108-126. Forehand, R., Wierson, M., McCombs, A., Thomas, R., Fauber, L.A., Kempton, T., & Long, N. (1991). A short-term longitudinal examination of young adolescent functioning following divorce: The role of family factors. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 100,

Poverty in the United States Essay Example for Free

Poverty in the United States Essay Poverty is a serious issue not only in third world countries but also here in the United States. Discussing the nature of poverty in the United States is important because through understanding we will find solutions. Gaining insights into the issue of poverty can be used to understand the complexity of the subject. Poverty has been defined as a state of deprivation of goods and services that essential to the maintenance of an adequate standard of living in a given society. Although the concept of poverty is considered relative, it cannot be denied that it magnifies the problem concerning inequality in a particular society (Levitan). The struggle of poverty impacts people’s day-to-day life. It is easy to hide some things in life but, poverty is not one of them. There are 633,782 homeless people in cities throughout the United States (St. Francis). Poor people have no place to live and are being exposed to nature’s elements, bacteria, and harmful illness can cause threat to the health of these individuals. The environment is being impacted as well, because there is nowhere to put waste or garbage other than on the ground. This is why it is important to gain insight and understand poverty so that we can help these people and the earth. When a person is living in poverty it is humiliating and weighs on an individual’s self-esteem as well as their families and is very difficult to overcome. Poverty is not always a choice, but it is a situation that can be prevented. If people everywhere take something from every book, article or essays that has been written and are willing to recognize and do something about it then it is a problem that can be fixed. There is not a perfect plan or a perfect solution to the poverty problem but, the aim is to decrease the number of individuals and families living in poverty drastically. There are many families living in poverty and there are an equal amount of thoughts and opinions on why people live in poverty such as drug and alcohol use, domestic violence and foreclosure just to name a few. Individuals have a difficult time taking care of themselves can you imagi ne having to try to provide for a family on next to nothing every day. Without a street address these families do not qualify to get welfare assistance such as food stamps, Medicaid, or housing assistance. Without housing assistance people are forced to stay in shelters and if they don’t make to a shelter by a certain  time they go without a warm place to sleep and without food that night. Some people wait in long lines all day for a spot at the shelter only to be turned away because there is just not enough space for everyone. A good way to alleviate or even eliminate this problem is to build more shelters or use some of the abandoned buildings in poverty stricken neighborhoods for the poor people to sleep in. Have stipulations in these shelters that individuals and their families are guaranteed more than one night as long as they abide by guidelines provided, kind of like a contract. So they are not just getting help they are in a sense helping their selves. Different situations have different solutions, there is a difference between a person living in poverty because you’re a war veteran and just having a hard time and living in poverty because you are and addict and everything you have is spent on drugs and alcohol. In these newly built or refurbished shelters with these stipulations, programs can be offered to help transition into a better way of living. Yes, then there is the issue of money and where will it come from. Nobody has money lying around just to give away so charity events, fundraisers, donations, volunteers and maybe even some help from government agencies would help. The children of these families living in poverty suffer most. Research shows that poverty in the first five years of a child’s life changes the life of a child compared to if they were to live in poverty later in life. This is because poverty is associated with poor nutrition; poor nutrition leads to lower intelligence, bad physical development, and poor immune systems. â€Å"Children deprived of proper nutrition during the most informative years score much lower on tests of vocabulary, reading comprehension, arithmetic, and general knowledge. The more severe the poverty a child faces, the lower his or her nutritional level is likely to be (BrownPollitt).† Many children that are labeled bad kids with behavioral problems are really just lacking nutritional value. A child that is hungry is more likely to act ou t and have greater difficulty focusing than a well fed child. There are government programs that offer assistance with nutrition such as W.I.C and Healthy Schools but the guidelines are very strict and fall short in making sure that every child living in poverty has adequate nutrition. So, this problem can be solved by changing the guidelines and making it easier for a family living in poverty to feed our future. People might say this is not my problem, I’m not living in poverty  so what does this have to do with me? Truth be told everyone is affected by poverty. As Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, â€Å"There is nothing more dangerous than to build a society, with a large segment of people in that society, who feel they have no stake in it; who feel they have nothing to lose. People, who have stake in their society, protect that society, but when they don’t have it, they unconsciously want to destroy it (Dr.MartinLutherKingJr.).† According to the history of our nation, the safety and equality of the people of our society relies on everyone individually and as a whole nation as one. If that’s the way the world is meant to be then why are people living in poverty treated so differently? Upper class doesn’t make you better than a person living in poverty, money doesn’t make you bad or good and the same goes for poverty. The founders of our nation fought hard for a country where everyone is treated as a person equally but, that is not the case when thousands of people still live in poverty every day. â€Å"Anybody that has ever spent a morning at the Department of Motor Vehicles or stood in the line at the Post Office should understand that simply because the government is handling the problem, doesn’t mean it’s being handled properly (St. Francis)†. The next time you see someone a little down and out stop to give them a minute and see if you can help them in any way, remember that poverty does not make them any less a human than you. I believe the proposed solutions will work because if its believable than its achievable and our system has proven in other situations to be reliable so let use it for the good of the people of our country that could use a hand up not a hand out. For people to be sick on the street, forced to sleep on cardboard or dirt, and have to beg other people to help them is not humane or the American way and should not be tolerated any longer. Works Cited BrownPollitt. Malnutrition, Poverty and Intellectual Development. Pollitt, L. Brown E. n.d. Dr.MartinLutherKingJr. Letter From Birmingham Jail. April 1963. Levitan, Sar A. Poverty In the Lexicon Universal Encyclopedia. 1990: pages 478-480 Vol. 15. St. Francis, Nancy. Homelessness in America 2013. 2013.

Transient Over Voltages Analysis In Power System Engineering Essay

Transient Over Voltages Analysis In Power System Engineering Essay Transient over-voltage is one of main causes for unscheduled interruption in power transmission and distribution systems including a smart grid. A surge over-voltage due to lightning and switching operation results in damages in an electrical power system and often leads to power outages. Predictive calculations of over-voltages generated by the lightning and the switching operation in the transmission and distribution systems are most essential for an economical insulation design and a reliable operation of the transmission and distribution systems. The transient over-voltage can be high frequency, medium frequency or low frequency. The transient over-voltage is dangerous to both lines as well as the connected equipment and may cause damage to the equipment. This project analyzes the transient at the load after switching. This project will discuss about analyzing a transient over-voltages which is the cause and the effect of the transient over-voltages. The method to solve this tran sient over-voltages also been discussed in this project. The PSCAD simulation is used for the transient analysis in this project to design the power system circuits. Problem Statement Voltage transient in Electric Power System appear several disturbances, sometimes very dangerous for the electrical equipment life, for the environment and for the human life. Switching transient phenomena produce in Power Systems over-voltages, over-currents and electrical fields, which havent to neglect. Thus was modeling and simulated the switching transient phenomena, consequently the electric fields and the possible negative influence about electrical equipment, environment and human life. Voltage transient in power system are cause by switching operation, lightning and faults in the system. The over-voltages can be dangerous to both the lines as well as the connected equipment and may cause damage to the equipment. Purpose of this project is to analyze the transient over-voltages at the load and to identify the method to reduce the effect of transient over-voltages. 1.2 Project Objective The objective of this project is as follows: Identify the effect and the cause of transient over-voltages and also the method to solving transient over-voltages. Simulate the transient over-voltages at the load after switching and design the power system circuits by using PSCAD simulation. Analyze the result after switching and after use pre-insertion resistor. 1.3 Project Scope In order to achieve the objective of this project, there are several scopes had been outlined as follows: Analysis on the distribution system. Generating the transient over-voltages waveform by using PSCAD simulation. The analysis is just focusing into transient over-voltages that occur because of the switching capacitor. Chapter 2 2.0 Literature Review 2.1 Introduction Voltage transients in power systems are caused by switching actions, lightning and faults in the system. Different phenomena create different types of transients. Oscillatory transients are caused mainly by switching phenomena in the network. The most common switching action is capacitor bank switching. The most severe transients are caused by capacitor energizing while capacitor de-energizing only causes a minor transient. Oscillatory transients are characterized by duration, magnitude and spectral content. There are subclasses of oscillatory transients depending on the dominant frequency. In this project it will more focus on switching devices. 2.2 Power System Electric power system is a very important part of the infrastructure of modern society. The power system today is very complex interconnected network. Electric power system is the system that can transform and change the form of the energy into electrical energy and transmit it to consumer. Technology today still cannot store the electricity that has been produced. The electrical energy only produce when needed or it will use after it is produced. As the effect, the management on the electricity becomes hard and difficult. The power system may be subdivided into the four major subsystems which are Generation subsystem, Transmission subsystem, Distribution subsystem and utilize subsystem. Figure 2.1 shows the power system that divided into generation, transmission and distribution. Figure 2.1: The Electric Power System 2.2.1 Generation Subsystem There are two major components in the generation system which is generators and transformers. For generators, an essential component of power systems is the three phase alternating current, ac, generator known as synchronous generator or alternator [1]. The source of the mechanical power, commonly known as the prime mover, may be hydraulic turbines, steam turbines whose energy comes from the burning of coal, gas and nuclear fuel, gas turbines, or occasionally internal combustion engines burning oil [1]. Some alternate sources used are solar power, geothermal power, wind power, tidal power and biomass. The power transformer transfer power with very high efficiency from one level of voltage to another level [1]. The transformer is been used to step up or step down the voltage. Insulation requirements and other practical design problems limit the generated voltage to low value, usually 30 kV. The step up is used for transmission of power. At the receiving end of the transmission lines, step down transformers are used to reduce the voltage to suitable values for distribution or utilization. The electricity in an electric power system may undergo four or five transformations between generator and consumers [1]. 2.2.2 Transmission Subsystem An overhead transmission network transfer electric power from generating units to the distribution system which ultimately supplies the load. It also interconnects neighboring utilities which allow the economic dispatch of power within regions during normal conditions, and the transfer of power between regions during emergencies. The network that interconnected between the utilities and load is called system grid [2]. The transmission line can be categorized into two categories which are high voltage transmission line and sub transmission line system. The difference between these two systems is in the voltage where for the high voltage, the level for transmission line voltage can reach 500kV and for sub transmission are in between 69kV to 138kV. All the transmission will be terminated at the substation [1]. 2.2.3 Distribution Subsystem The distribution system connects the distribution substations to the consumers service-entrance equipment. The voltage for this type of system has been reduced by using step down transformer from 66 kV to 22 kV and below. The secondary distribution network reduces the voltages for utilization by commercial and residential consumers. Lines and cables not exceeding a few hundred feet in length then deliver power to the individual consumers. The secondary distribution serves most of the customers at levels of 240 V for single phase and 415 V for three phases. Distribution systems are both overhead and underground. The growth of underground distribution has been extremely rapid and as much as 70 percent of new residential construction is via underground systems [1]. 2.2.4 Utilization Subsystem The utilities system or power system loads are divided into three main categories which are industrial, commercial and residential. Industrial loads are composite loads and induction motors form a high proportion of these loads [1]. These composite loads are functions of voltage and frequency and form a major part of the system load [1]. On the other hand, commercial and residential loads consist largely of lighting, heating, air conditioning and cooking [1]. These loads are independent of frequency and consume negligibly small reactive power [1]. The load varies throughout the day and power must be available to consumers on demand. The daily-load curve of a utility is a composite of demand made by various classes of users. The greatest value of load during 24 hour period is called the peak or maximum demand [1]. 2.3 Transient Over-voltages Transient is a sudden increase in current or voltage in a circuit that can damage sensitive components and instruments. Transient overvoltages are a voltage peak with a maximum duration of less than one millisecond. It can be high, medium, or low frequency. Transient overvoltages on power system are due to various causes and can be classified into two main categories, external and internal overvoltages [3]. Natural overvoltages on low voltage networks are caused by direct lightning strikes. Lightning is an external overvoltage. The high level of energy contained in a direct lightning strike on a lightning conductor or an overhead low voltage line leads to considerable damage of the installation. The overvoltages can be over 20 times the nominal voltage. Operating or switching overvoltages linked to a networks equipment create overvoltages of a lower level 3 to 5 times the nominal voltage but occur much more frequently, thus causing premature ageing of the equipment. Switching overvol tages is an internal overvoltage. Transient overvoltages are generally oscillatory and take the form of a damped sinusoid. The frequency of these overvoltages may vary from a few hundred Hz to a few kHz and it is governed by the inherent capacitances and inductances of the circuit. 2.2 Switching Capacitor Equipment containing electronic switching components is also likely to generate electrical disturbances comparable to over-voltages. The consequences of which on sensitive equipment, albeit not visible, are no less detrimental: premature ageing and unpredictable or fleeting breakdowns. Operating over-voltages are produced when reactive or capacitive equipment is switched on and off. Furthermore, interrupting factory production, lighting or transformers can generate over-voltages which will themselves cause greater damage to nearby electrical equipment. In general, these over-voltages are caused by transient phenomena which appear when the state of the network is changed by switching operation or fault condition. Example of these over-voltages is switching on and off equipment, such as switching of high voltage reactors and switching of a transformer at no load. The time duration of the switching over-voltages is longer than lightning. This overvoltage is most disastrous to the power system equipments because it happen many time than lightning. Closing, opening, disconnection and re-striking in a power system circuit result in over-voltages six times than the normal voltage. Shunt capacitors banks are common devices used in power system for reactive power compensation, voltage regulation and power factor correction. These capacitors are implemented in the system in order to control system voltage, increase power transfer capability, reduce equipment loading, and reduce energy costs by improving power factor of the system. However, energizing these shunt capacitors produces a transient oscillation in the power systems. Due to the fact that the operation of switching shunt capacitors happens frequently, shunt capacitor switching is regarded as the main source of generating transient voltages on many utility systems. These transients can cause damages on both utility systems and customer systems, depending on the system parameters such as switched shunt capacitor size, transformer size, and the type of customer loads connected to the system. Transient frequencies due to utility distribution capacitor switching usually fall in the range 300 Hz to 1000 Hz. Transient over-voltages which result are usually not of concern to the utility, since peak magnitudes are just below the level in which utility surge protection, such as arresters, begins to operate. However, because of the relatively low frequency, these transients will pass through step-down transformers to customer loads. Secondary over-voltages can c ause voltage magnification or nuisance tripping of adjustable-speed drives. Figure 2.2 show the example of single line diagram of the power system using shunt capacitor. Figure 2.3 show the transient voltage at the switched shunt capacitor. This is the example of the transient in the voltage waveform. Figure 2.4 show the transient voltage at the low voltage capacitor that has been magnetized. Figure 2.2: Example of Single Line Diagram of the Power System Using Shunt Capacitor Figure 2.3: Transient Voltages at the Switched Shunt Capacitor Figure 2.4: Magnified Transient Voltage at the Low Voltage Capacitor 2.3 Pre-Insertion Resistor There are several techniques to mitigation the switching transient in the distribution circuit and one of the techniques that use in this project is pre-insertion resistor. A pre-insertion resistor provides a means for reducing the transient voltages associated with the energization of a shunt capacitor bank. The resistors were connected in series with the controlled capacitor bank to damp the transient inrush current. The resistor is bypassed shortly after the initial transient dissipates, thereby producing second transient event. An additional switch is use to bypass this resistor. The performance of pre-insertion resistor is evaluated using both the insertion and bypass transient magnitudes, as well as the capability to dissipate the energy associated with the event and repeat the event on a regular basis. The size for this resistor was calculated from equation 2.1 and 2.2. The optimum resistor value for controlling capacitor energizing transients depends primarily on the capacito r size and the source strength. The value of the resistor is approximately equal to the surge impedance, Zo, from equation 2.3. R = (2.1) Z = (2.2) Roptimum ≈ Z (2.3) Chapter 3 3.0 Methodology 3.1 Introduction This chapter describes about the step that needed in this project. Figure 3.1 show the block diagram of analysis and figure 3.2 show the flowchart of the process analysis. This block diagram shows the step from the first step of the project which is design the circuit to the final step which is result and analysis. Design Circuit Placing Input and Output Devices Running Simulation Result and Analysis Figure 3.1: The Block Diagram of Analysis In order to get the result from the Power System Computer Aided Design (PSCAD), the user should follow the step as follow in the Figure 3.2. Figure 3.2: Flowchart of Process Analysis 3.2 Design Circuit This is the process to build up the diagram of the circuit for the analysis. The user need to choose and selecting component from master library and put it in the main page where the user will construct the circuit. There are many components with a different type of setting. The user only need to double click on the component to edit or changes the setting and parameter. Project development consists of two parts electronic and software designs. Figure 3.2 show the three phase source that use in this project. This source impedance is type R because resistor connected series with the source. The source in this project is being controlled through fixed parameter. Figure 3.2: Three Phase Source Figure 3.3 show the three phase transformer that use in this project. The type of the transformer is a three phase and two winding transformer. The transformer is connected in star delta connection. Other characteristic for the transformer in this project is the transformer use to step up the voltage. Figure 3.3: Three Phase Transformer 3.3 Placing Input and Output Devices This process is used to get the measurement, signal and waveform of the graph in selecting part or component. The output device must be placed at the point of measurement before plotting can be done on the drawing space. Without this device, the PSCAD cannot create the plotting and the result cannot be obtained. After the circuit had already been executed and there is no error, the output from the circuit or diagram will be obtained. Figure 3.4 shows some of the output and input devices that used in this project. Figure 3.4: The input and output devices 3.4 Running Simulation After complete all the circuit design and placing input and output device, the user need to run the circuit to get the result. To run the simulation the user only need to click on the run button in the main toolbar. Figure 3.5 show the location of run button at the main toolbar. The run toolbar have a green color. When this button is pressed, PSCAD will go through several stages of processing the circuit before starting the EMTDC simulation. Figure 3.5: The run button at main toolbar During the run time, the work will be compiling by the PSCAD. The result or output only will produce if there is no error in the setting of the circuit in the drawing or all connection is connected. If there is an error, the warning will appear at output space. Once the program is no error and running, the graph and also the measurement will be produce depending on the selected node. The user also able to pause and zoomed the graph. 3.5 Graph Calculation The graph give the certain value to calculated the overshoot, resonant frequency and also the curve can be identified as an overdamped, underdamped or critical damped. Equation 3.1 is use to calculate the overshoot. Equation 3.2 is uses to calculate the resonant frequency, ωo. % OS = -100 (3.1) ωo = (3.2) The curve is overdamped if ÃŽ ± is bigger than ωo, underdamped if ÃŽ ± is smaller than ωo and critically damped if ÃŽ ± is equal to ωo. Equation 3.3 to 3.8 shows the step to get a value of ÃŽ ±. Figure 3.6 shows the example of the series RLC circuit. Figure 3.6: The Series RLC Circuit Equation 3.3 is equation for series RLC circuit. Equation 3.4 and 3.5 is a root for quadratic equation for 3.3. ( 3.3) (3.4) (3.5) The root for equation 3.4 and 3.5 can be express to equation 3.6 and 3.7. (3.6) (3.7) From equation 3.4 and 3.6, the value for damping factor, ÃŽ ±, calculated as equation 3.8. (3.8) Chapter 4 4.0 Expected Result The transient over-voltages that occur at the load during capacitor switching will be discuss base on result at all buses in the circuit that will be design before doing the simulations. The discussion is about the voltage waveform when transient over-voltages occur and voltage waveform when the simulations using pre-insertion resistors to reduce transient over-voltages. The results of waveform at all buses that will be obtain from PSCAD simulation will be discuss in term of peak voltage, overshoot and weather that waveform is overdamped, underdamped or critically damped. Figure 4.1 show the voltage waveform that will get during capacitor switching at all buses. Figure 4.2 show the voltage waveform that will get at all buses after simulate it using pre-insertion resistor. The transient will be reduce after doing the simulation using pre-insertion resistor. Figure 4.1: Transient Over-voltage Waveform at Buses. Figure 4.2: Voltage Waveform at Buses after Pre-Insertion Resistor. Chapter 5 5.0 Conclusion In PSM 1 all the literature review regarding this project are been studied so at the end of PSM 1 it can be summarized that the objectives of the project will be fulfilled in the next PSM 2, which is to design the circuit, running the PSCAD simulations and analyze the result that obtain from the PSCAD simulations in term of peak voltage, overshoot and weather that waveform is overdamped, underdamped or critically damped. This progress will need more commitment and efforts. In conjunction to achieve that, scope and objectives of this project will be the guideline.